Train of Thought

We are an independent research group studying supply chains in Iran, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan.

This site showcases our research. We share our analysis, expertise and custom datasets that present complex freight transport developments and supply chain issues in an accessible and actionable way, for fellow researchers and decision-makers across government and industry.

Our research contributes to supporting the UN’s SDG goals (7, 9, 12 and 13) in developing economies in ensuring inclusive, accessible and sustainable transport infrastructure.

Our research has been published in the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) and the International Railway Journal (IRJ).

Meet the Team

  • Sophia Nina B-A

    FOUNDER & EDITOR

    Sophia Nina B-A has lived and worked for over a decade in Central Asia and Afghanistan, conducting geopolitical risk analysis and strategic advisory services in both the public and private sectors. Her area of focus is on transport infrastructure, particularly railways.

    She currently works as a freelance journalist for the International Railway Journal on the Iran, Afghanistan and Central Asia desk. Alongside this Sophia works as a consultant for the international development sector, with her recent assignment consulting for the IFC based in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. She founded Train of Thought in June 2024.

    She has published over 30 articles on railways and transport infrastructure with bylines in RUSI, The Diplomat, Le Monde, The BBC, and The Economist.

    Sophia is a native English speaker and fluent in Uzbeki, Russian, Dari and conversational Tajiki. She holds a Bachelor’s degree in Politics and International Relations from the University of Aberdeen and a Master’s in Russian Studies from University College London (UCL).

  • Mads Schmidt

    SECURITY EXPERT

    Mads Schmidt is a security and risk-management practitioner with experience in fragile and high-risk environments.

    His background includes operational roles with Danish and Norwegian diplomatic missions in Afghanistan and subsequent work in security consulting for international clients.

    He currently serves as Physical Security Lead at Novo Nordisk in Denmark, where he is responsible for national security governance, incident preparedness, and the development of standardised security frameworks across multiple sites.

    Mads professional interests include critical-infrastructure protection, resilience, and the interaction between security conditions and business objectives.

  • Charles McCloy

    COLD LOGISTICS SUPPLY CHAIN EXPERT

    Charles is a Russian & Arabic speaker with specialism in cold logistics and food business across international markets.

    He currently works as a Director at CBRE, where he provides strategic real estate advice to clients across the globe in the cold logistics and food sectors.

    He has a particular professional interest in the economic potential of Central Asia and advises clients on how to navigate the region.

    Charles is experienced in consulting on the valuation, financing, development, and M&A of food facilities on behalf of leading investors, operators, and lenders in the sector, having provided over €7 bn in advice.

Our research

  • Feeding a Growing Population: Logistics Challenges Facing Food Security in Central Asia

    25/11/2025

    By Charles McCloy

    With the recently signed ‘Central Asia Food Security Plan through 2030’ by the Central Asian agriculture ministers on 11 November in Uzbekistan, Charles has crunched the data and has put together his first in a series of articles exploring the cold supply chain in Central Asia, and how it affects food security in the region. He unpacks: where we’re at now, what’s causing the logistical challenges and offers practical strategies to close the gap.

    Read Here

  • The Khaf-Herat Railway: Security Threat Assessment Map

    21/11/2025

    By Mads Schmidt

    A high-level overview of the security risks along the semi-built Khaf-Herat railway route. We have provided a snap summary of the security context of Herat province in Afghanistan currently. Despite the Taliban being in control, Herat is the third largest province in Afghanistan and holds strategic significance to both Afghanistan as well as its neighbour Iran. This also exposes it to potential threats, as illustrated in the map.

    Read Here

  • Updated Table on Central Asia Railway Projects - Current and Future

    17/11/2025

    By Sophia Nina B-A

    I have just updated and simplified the previous table I published here on Central Asia railway projects. I felt a refresh was necessary! Hope this is clearer and easier to follow.

    Read here

  • Russia begins first diesel export to Afghanistan via Iran railway

    06/11/2025

    By Sophia Nina B-A

    Yesterday, Russia reportedly started exporting 5000 tonnes of diesel fuel by railway for the first time to Afghanistan via Iran. The diesel fuel will be shipped from Russia to the Iranian Caspian seaport of Amirabad, from there the fuel is carried by rail to Mashhad then to Afghanistan via the semi-finished Khaf-Herat railway.

    Read here

  • Railway Network of Kazakhstan and Freight border crossings

    17/10/2025

    By Sophia Nina B-A

    In my latest research, I carried out an extensive examination of Kazakhstan’s railway lines and border crossings for freight movement.

    Read here

  • Overview of Tajikistan’s Railway Network

    29/10/2025

    By Sophia Nina B-A

    I dive into the Tajik railway network and share my notes on the background of key rail projects.

    Read here

  • Railways of Central Asia - present and future

    29/09/2025

    By Sophia Nina B-A

    A detailed summary of all railway projects-present and planned- going on in Central Asia, as well as the broader transport corridor projects they form a part of.

    Read here

  • The Trans-Afghan Railway: Updates So Far

    29/09/2025

    By Sophia Nina B-A

    In my recent article for RUSI I highlight the ambiguous role of Russian Railways in the Trans-Afghan railway project feasibility studies

    Read here

  • The Khaf-Herat Railway: Summary Of Latest Developments

    22/09/2025

    By Sophia Nina B-A

    Construction begins on the final section, Iranian delegation inspects progress, and further joint iron ore mining activities discussed.

    Read here

  • The Khaf-Herat Railway: possible iron ore-for-railway deal and new border crossing

    30/08/2025

    By Sophia Nina B-A

    A closer look at the new Shamtig railway border crossing between Iran and Afghanistan, built for the Khaf-Herat railway project; and a possible iron ore in exchange for railway deal between Afghanistan and Iran.

    Read here

  • The Khaf-Herat Railway Route

    08/08/2025

    By Sophia Nina B-A

    Route map and breakdown of construction of the Khaf-Herat Railway project between Iran and Afghanistan

    Read here

  • The Trans-Afghan Railway: Security Threat Assessment Map

    08/08/2025

    By Mads Schmidt

    Security threat assessment map of the Trans-Afghan Railway

    Read here

  • The Trans-Afghan Railway Route

    31/07/2025

    By Sophia Nina B-A

    A detailed background and assessment of the Trans-Afghan railway project.

    Read here

Our vision and why it matters

  • Our Vision

    By leveraging visual analytics, risk strategies, and data-driven insights, we aim to provide a transparent and detailed assessment of railways and rail-related issues linking to global supply chains in Afghanistan, Iran, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.

    These countries have become important transit hubs in broader international efforts to develop new global supply chains. In particular, rail transport has taken on strategic importance for several reasons.

    These include sanction challenges facing seabourne trade, the need for economic diversification, the transition to low-carbon transport and delivering on the goals of the Paris Agreement enforced in November 2016, aligning infrastructure with demand, as well as defence and national security considerations.

  • Our research focuses on two key aspects

    1. Mapping Freight Railway Routes: Creating original maps that illustrate the accessibility of existing and planned freight transport connections in Iran, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan, showcasing distances to the nearest border and seaport, and highlighting vulnerabilities.

    2. Risk Assessment: We look at the big picture. Our research assesses the wider railway-related issues can impact transport projects. This includes political risks, financial risks, economic risks, logistical problems and vulnerabilities in the global supply chain system.

  • Why It Matters

    Traditional transit and domestic freight railway analysis in Iran, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan often relies on limited data and generalised assumptions.

    Our approach offers a new systems thinking perspective by conducting detailed risk assessments of the country’s existing railway network and plans, and analysing their unique logistical needs.

    This enables the identification of strategic improvements, from traction speed, the need for an increase in wagon capacity, storage and logistics, to understanding the risks of their operating and market environment. We also identify railway-related challenges in the context of the wider global supply chain.

  • Our research contributes to supporting the UN’s SDG goals in developing economies

    SDG 7: Access to affordable and Clean Energy

    SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure - Focuses on building resilient infrastructure, a key pillar of sustainable logistics networks.

    SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production - Stresses the need for efficient sustainable supply chain practices.

    SDG 13: Climate Action - Calls for urgent measures to combat climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which heavily involve the transportation sector.

Latest publications

  • Russia’s First Oil Export to Afghanistan Via the Iranian Railways: a Closer Look

    Sophia Nina B-A - December 2025

    The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)

    London, UK.

    Read here

  • What to Make of the $4.2 Billion Kazakhstan-US Locomotive Deal?

    Sophia Nina B-A - October, 2025

    The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)

    London, UK.

    Read here

  • Why Central Asia Focuses so Much on Railways

    Sophia Nina B-A - September, 2025

    The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)

    London, UK.

    Read here

  • Russia’s Plans Are Bigger Than Conflict With the West or Camaraderie With China

    Sophia Nina B-A - May, 2025

    The Diplomat, Washington DC.

    Read here

  • The View From the Ground: China’s Evolving Strategy in South and Central Asia

    Sophia Nina B-A - October, 2024

    The Diplomat, Washington DC.

    Read here

  • Explaining South Korea’s railway ambitions in Central Asia

    Sophia Nina B-A - August 2024

    The Diplomat, Washington DC.

    Read here

  • The ‘Corridorizing’ of Asia: Cooperation, Competition, and Consequences

    Sophia Nina B-A - July, 2024.

    The Diplomat, Washington DC.

    Read here

  • Russia expands oil trade south via Afghanistan as it seeks warm water ports

    Sophia Nina B-A - May 2024

    The Diplomat, Washington DC.

    Read here

  • In importing Russian gas, Pakistan treads a fine line

    Sophia Nina B-A - July 2023

    The Diplomat, Washington DC.

    Read here

  • Kazakhstan is vulnerable to secondary sanctions

    Sophia Nina B-A - June, 2023

    The Diplomat, Washington DC.

    Read here

  • Afghanistan-Iran completes first trial run of Khaf-Herat Railway

    Sophia Nina B-A - June, 2023

    The Diplomat, Washington DC.

    Read here

  • Uzbekistan and Russia energy relations: a tale of two problems

    Sophia Nina B-A - May, 2023

    The Diplomat, Washington DC.

    Read here

  • The Strategic Logic of Russia’s Embrace of the Taliban

    Sophia Nina B-A - April, 2023

    The Diplomat, Washington DC.

    Read Here

  • Kazakhstan and Afghanistan seek to realign bilateral ties

    Sophia Nina B-A - March, 2023.

    The Diplomat, Washington DC.

    Read here

  • New Hopes for Old Projects? China gears up rail efforts with Kazakhstan

    Sophia Nina B-A - March, 2023.

    The Diplomat, Washington DC.

    Read here

  • Afghanistan Seeks New Air Corridors

    Sophia Nina B-A and Mads Schmidt.

    March, 2023 - The Diplomat, Washington DC.

    Read here

  • Just passing through: Kazakhstan’s parallel trade predicament

    Sophia Nina B-A - March, 2023.

    The Diplomat, Washington DC.

    Read here

  • After a temporary suspension, what’s next for the Trans-Afghan railway?

    Sophia Nina B-A - February, 2023.

    The Diplomat, Washington DC.

    Read here

  • Trial Run for China-Afghan Rail Corridor as SCO Summit Kicks Off

    Sophia Nina B-A - September, 2022.

    The Diplomat, Washington DC.

    Read here

  • The Trans-Afghan Railway line: Back on Track?

    Sophia Nina B-A - July, 2022.

    The Diplomat, Washington DC.

    Read Here

  • The Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Implications for Kazakhstan’s Energy Sector

    Sophia Nina B-A - May 2022.

    The Diplomat, Washington DC.

    Read Here

  • China and Uzbekistan: An emerging development partnership?

    Sophia Nina B-A - May, 2022.

    The Diplomat, Washington DC.

    Read here

  • Mixed fortunes for Kazakh grain?

    Sophia Nina B-A - April, 2022.

    The Diplomat, Washington DC.

    Read Here

  • India’s plan to realise TAPI

    Sophia Nina B-A - April, 2022.

    The Diplomat, Washington DC.

    Click Here

  • Uzbekistan looks south for new trade routes

    Sophia Nina B-A - April, 2022.

    The Diplomat, Washington DC.

    Read here

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